CoSy - CC2 - Complex Systems Approaches to Understanding Causes and Consequences of Past, Present and Future Climate Change


Published 2018

  • K.H. Krämer, R.V. Donner, J. Heitzig, N. Marwan: Recurrence threshold selection for obtaining robust recurrence characteristics in different embedding dimensions. Chaos, 28, 085720 (2018).

  • R.V. Donner, V. Stolbova, G. Balasis, J.F. Donges, M. Georgiou, S. Potirakis, J. Kurths: Temporal organization of magnetospheric fluctuations unveiled by recurrence patterns in the Dst index. Chaos, 28, 085716 (2018).

  • J. Lekscha, R.V. Donner: Phase space reconstruction for non-uniformly sampled noisy time series. Chaos, 28, 085702 (2018).

  • R.V. Donner, M. Lindner, L. Tupikina, N. Molkenthin: Characterizing flows by complex network methods. In: A Mathematical Modeling Approach from Nonlinear Dynamics to Complex Systems, ed. by E.E.N. Macau, Springer International, Cham, pp. 197-226 (2019).

  • T. Laepple, R.V. Donner, T. Kunz: Understanding and modelling space-time Holocene climate variability - 2nd CVAS workshop, Potsdam, Germany, 25 - 27 October 2017. PAGES Past Global Changes Magazine, 26(1), 38 (2018).

  • E. Rousi, D. Coumou, R.V. Donner: Atmospheric Teleconnections: Advanced Tools and Citizen Science. Eos, 99 (2018).

Published 2017

  • W. Barfuss, J.F. Donges, M. Wiedermann, W. Lucht: Sustainable use of renewable resources in a stylized social-ecological network model under heterogeneous resource distribution. Earth System Dynamics, 8, 255-264 (2017).

  • P.P. Klamser, M. Wiedermann, J.F. Donges, R.V. Donner: Zealotry effects on opinion dynamics in the adaptive voter model. Physical Review E, 96, 052315 (2017).

  • J.G. Franke, J.P. Werner, R.V. Donner: Reconstructing Late Holocene North Atlantic atmospheric circulation changes using functional paleoclimate networks. Climate of the Past, 13, 1593-1608 (2017). Discussion Paper: Climate of the Past Discussions, doi:10.5194/cp-2017-41 (2017).

  • L. Baumbach, J.F. Siegmund, M. Mittermeier, R.V. Donner: Impacts of temperature extremes on European vegetation during the growing season. Biogeosciences, 14, 4891-4903 (2017). Discussion Paper: Biogeosciences Discussions, doi:10.5194/bg-2017-189 (2017).

  • C. Mitra, J. Kurths, R.V. Donner: Rewiring hierarchical scale-free networks - Influence on synchronizability and topology. Europhysics Letters (EPL), 119, 30002 (2017).

  • A. Loew, W. Bell, L. Brocca, C. Bulgin, J. Burdanowitz, X. Calbet, R.V. Donner, D. Ghent, A. Gruber, T. Kaminski, J. Kinzel, C. Klepp, J.-C. Lambert, G. Schaepman-Strub, M. Schröder, T. Verhoelst: Validation practices for satellite based earth observation data across communities. Reviews of Geophysics, 55(3), 779-817 (2017).

  • M. Wiedermann, J.F. Donges, J. Kurths, R.V. Donner: Mapping and discrimination of networks in the complexity-entropy plane. Physical Review E, 96, 042304 (2017).

  • C. Mitra, T. Kittel, A. Choudhary, J. Kurths, R.V. Donner: Recovery time after localized perturbations in complex dynamical networks. New Journal of Physics, 19, 103004 (2017).

  • D. Willink, V. Khan, R.V. Donner: Improved one-month lead-time forecasting of the SPI over Russia with pressure covariates based on the SL-AV model. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 143(701B), 2636-2649 (2017).

  • M. Wiedermann, J.F. Donges, D. Handorf, J. Kurths, R.V. Donner: Hierarchical structures in Northern Hemispheric extratropical winter ocean-atmosphere interactions. International Journal of Climatology, 37(10), 3821-3836 (2017).

  • K. Vinke, M.A. Martin, S. Adams, A. Bondeau, F. Baarsch, D. Coumou, R.V. Donner, A. Menon, M. Perrette, K. Rehfeld, A. Robinson, M. Rocha, M. Schaeffer, S. Schwan, O. Serdeczny, A. Svirejeva-Hopkins: Climate risks and impacts in South Asia: Extremes of water scarcity and excess. Regional Environmental Change, 17(6), 1569-1583 (2017).

  • N. Ekhtiari, S. Grossman-Clarke, H. Koch, W. Meira de Souza, R.V. Donner, J. Volkholz: Effects of the Lake Sobradinho reservoir (Northeastern Brazil) on the regional climate. Climate, 5(3), 50 (2017).

  • J.G. Franke, R.V. Donner: Dynamical anomalies in terrestrial proxies of North Atlantic climate variability during the last 2ka. Climatic Change, 143(1-2), 87-100 (2017).

  • J. Maluck, R.V. Donner, H. Takayasu, M. Takayasu: Industry specific topologies and motif controllability in the Japanese Business Firm Network. Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment, 053404 (2017).

  • R.V. Donner, E. Hern\E1ndez-Garcia, E. Ser-Giacomi: Introduction to Focus Issue: Complex network perspectives on flow systems. Chaos, 27(3), 035601 (2017).

  • R.V. Donner, M. Wiedermann, J.F. Donges: Complex network techniques for climatological data analysis. Nonlinear and Stochastic Climate Dynamics, ed. by C.L.E. Franzke, T.J. O'Keane, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 159-183 (2017).

  • N. Fujiwara, K. Kirchen, J.F. Donges, R.V. Donner: A perturbation-theoretic approach to Lagrangian flow networks. Chaos, 27(3), 035813 (2017).

  • M. Lindner, R.V. Donner: Spatio-temporal organization of dynamics in a two-dimensional periodically driven vortex flow: A Lagrangian flow network perspective. Chaos, 27(3), 035806 (2017).

  • J. Maluck, R.V. Donner: Distributions of positive correlations in sectoral value added growth in the global economic network. European Physical Journal B, 90, 26 (2017).

  • C. Mitra, A. Choudhary, S. Sinha, J. Kurths, R.V. Donner: Multiple-node basin stability in complex dynamical networks. Physical Review E, 95(3), 031317 (2017).

  • N. Molkenthin, H. Kutza, L. Tupikina, N. Marwan, J.F. Donges, U. Feudel, J. Kurths, R.V. Donner: Edge anisotropy and the geometric perspective on flow networks. Chaos, 27(3), 035802 (2017).

  • J.F. Siegmund, N. Siegmund, R.V. Donner: CoinCalc - A new R package for quantifying simultaneities of event series. Computers & Geosciences, 98, 64-72 (2017).

Published 2016

  • S.M. Barbosa, R.V. Donner: Long-term changes in the seasonality of Baltic sea-level. Tellus A, 68, 30540, (2016).

  • J.F. Donges, C.-F. Schleussner, J.F. Siegmund, R.V. Donner: Event coincidence analysis for quantifying statistical interrelationships between event time series - On the role of extreme flood events as possible drivers of epidemics. European Physical Journal - Special Topics, 225(3), 471-487 (2016).

  • C.-F. Schleussner, J.F. Donges, R.V. Donner, H.J. Schellnhuber: The co-production of armed conflicts by climate-related disasters and ethnic fractionalization. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113(33), 9216-9221 (2016).

  • J.F. Siegmund, T. Sanders, I. Heinrich, E. van der Maaten, S. Simard, G. Helle, R.V. Donner: Meteorological drivers of extremes in daily beech, oak and pine stem diameter variations in Northeastern Germany - An event coincidence analysis. Frontiers in Plant Sciences, 7, 733 (2016).

  • J.F. Siegmund, M. Wiedermann, J.F. Donges, R.V. Donner: Impact of temperature and precipitation extremes on the flowering dates of four German wildlife shrub species. Biogeosciences, 13, 5541-5555 (2016). Discussion Paper: Biogeosciences Discussions, 12, 18389-18423 (2015).

  • M. Wiedermann, J.F. Donges, J. Kurths, R.V. Donner: Spatial network surrogates for disentangling complex system structure from spatial embedding of nodes. Physical Review E, 93(4), 042308 (2016).

  • M. Wiedermann, A. Radebach, J.F. Donges, J. Kurths, R.V. Donner: A climate network-based index to discriminate different types of El Nino and La Nina. Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 069119 (2016).

  • Y. Zou, R.V. Donner, M. Thiel, J. Kurths: Disentangling regular and chaotic motion in the standard map using complex network analysis of recurrences in phase space. Chaos 26(2), 023120 (2016).

Published 2015

  • S.M. Barbosa, R.V. Donner, G. Steinitz: Radon applications in geosciences - progress & perspectives. European Physical Journal - Special Topics 224(4), 597-603 (2015).

  • N. Boers, R.V. Donner, B. Bookhagen, J. Kurths: Complex network analysis identifies impacts of the El Nino Southern Oscillation on moisture divergence in South America. Climate Dynamics 45(3-4), 619-632 (2015).

  • J.F. Donges, J. Heitzig, B. Beronov, M. Wiedermann, J. Runge, Q.Y. Feng, L. Tupikina, V. Stolbova, R.V. Donner, N. Marwan, H.A. Dijkstra, J. Kurths: Unified functional network and nonlinear time series analysis for complex systems science - The pyunicorn package. Chaos 25(11), 113101 (2015).

  • J.F. Donges, R.V. Donner, N. Marwan, S.F.M. Breitenbach, K. Rehfeld, J. Kurths: Nonlinear regime shifts in Holocene Asian monsoon variability - Potential impacts on cultural change and migratory patterns. Climate of the Past, 11, 709-741 (2015).

  • R.V. Donner, J.F. Donges, Y. Zou, J.H. Feldhoff: Complex network analysis of recurrences. In: C. Webber, Jr., N. Marwan (eds): Recurrence Quantification Analysis: Theory and Best Practices, Springer International Publishing, pp. 101-163 (2015).

  • R.V. Donner, S.M. Potirakis, S.M. Barbosa, J.A.O. Matos, A.J.S.C. Pereira, L.J.P.F. Neves: Intrinsic vs. spurious long-range memory in high-frequency records of environmental radioactivity - Critical re-assessment and application to indoor 222Rn concentrations from Coimbra, Portugal. European Physical Journal - Special Topics 224(4), 741-762 (2015).

  • R.V. Donner, S. Potirakis, G. Balasis, K. Eftaxias, J. Kurths: Temporal correlation patterns in pre-seismic electromagnetic emissions reveal distinct complexity profiles prior to major earthquakes. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 85-86, 44-55 (2015).

  • R.V. Donner: Interactive Comment on "Global trend analysis of the MODIS drought severity index" by P.I. Orvos et al. Geoscientific Instrumentation Methods and Data Systems Discussions, 5, pp. C1-C4 (2015).

  • J. Maluck, R.V. Donner: A network of networks perspective on global trade. PLOS ONE 10(7), e013310 (2015).

  • C. Mitra, J. Kurths, R.V. Donner: An integrative quantifier of multistability in complex systems based on ecological resilience. Scientific Reports 5, 16196 (2015).

  • A. Rammig, M. Wiedermann, J.F. Donges, F. Babst, W. von Bloh, D. Frank, K. Thonicke, M.D. Mahecha. Coincidences of climatic extremes and anomalous vegetation responses: comparing tree ring patterns to simulated productivity. Biogeosciences 12, 373-385 (2015).

  • J. Runge: Quantifying information transfer and mediation along causal pathways in complex systems. Physical Review E 92, 062829 (2015).

  • J. Runge, R.V. Donner, J. Kurths: Optimal model-free prediction from multivariate time series. Physical Review E 91, 052909 (2015).

  • J. Runge, V. Petoukhov, J.F. Donges, J. Hlinka, N. Jajcay, M. Vejmelka, D. Hartman, N. Marwan, M. Palus, J. Kurths: Identifying causal gateways and mediators in complex spatio-temporal systems. Nature Communications 6, 8502 (2015).

  • C.-F. Schleussner, D. Divine, J.F. Donges, A. Miettinen, R.V. Donner: Indications for a North Atlantic ocean circulation regime shift at the onset of the Little Ice Age. Climate Dynamics 45, 3623-3633 (2015).

  • M. Wiedermann, J.F. Donges, J. Heitzig, W. Lucht, J. Kurths. Macroscopic description of complex adaptive networks co-evolving with dynamic node states. Physical Review E 91, 052801 (2015).

  • Y. Zou, R.V. Donner, J. Kurths: Analyzing long-term correlated stochastic processes by means of recurrence networks: Potentials and pitfalls. Physical Review E, 91, 022926 (2015).

Published 2014

  • D.C. Zemp, M. Wiedermann, J. Kurths, A. Rammig, J.F. Donges. Node-weighted measures for complex networks with directed and weighted edges for studying continental moisture recycling. Europhysics Letters 102, 58005 (2014).

  • Y. Zou, R.V. Donner, N. Marwan, M. Small, J. Kurths: Long-term changes in the North-South asymmetry of solar activity - a nonlinear dynamics characterization using visibility graphs. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 21, 1113-1126 (2014).


  • J. Maluck, N. Glanemann, R.V. Donner: Bilateral trade agreements and the interconnectedness of global trade - The different roles played by the United States and China. Frontiers in Interdisciplinary Physics.

  • J. Runge, G. Balasis, I.A. Daglis, C. Papadimitriou, R.V. Donner: Common solar wind drivers behind magnetic storm-magnetospheric substorm dependency. Nature Scientific Reports.

  • Y. Zou, R.V. Donner, N. Marwan, J.F. Donges, J. Kurths: Complex network approaches to nonlinear time series analysis. Physics Reports. doi:10.1016/j.physrep.2018.10.005.

  • R. Donner, S. Lämmer, A. Hofleitner, D. Helbing: Decentralised Control of Traffic Flows in Urban Networks. Lectures on Socio- and Econophysics, ed. by J.J. Schneider (Springer, Berlin, forthcoming).


  • J.G. Franke, R.V. Donner: Correlating Paleoclimate Time Series: Sources of Uncertainty and Potential Pitfalls. Quaternary Science Reviews.

  • F. Wolf, C. Kirsch, R.V. Donner: Edge directionality properties in complex spherical networks. Physical Review E.

  • C. Kirsch, A. Lensch, R.V. Donner: ENSO's different flavors and global patterns of seasonal climate anomalies. Atmosphere.

  • G.di Capua, M. Kretschmer, J. Runge, A. Alessandri, R. Donner, B. van den Hurk, R. Vellore, K. Raghavan, D. Coumou: Long-lead statistical forecasts of the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall based on causal precursors. Geophysical Research Letters.

  • C. Ciemer, L. Rehm, J. Kurths, R.V. Donner, R. Winkelmann, N. Boers: An early-warning indicator for Amazon droughts based on tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Nature Communications.

  • R.V. Donner, G. Balasis, V. Stolbova, M. Georgiou, M. Wiedermann, J. Kurths: Recurrence based quantification of dynamical complexity in the Earth's magnetosphere at geospace storm timescales. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics.

  • T. Kittel, C. Ciemer, N. Lotfi, T. Peron, F. Rodrigues, J. Kurths, R.V. Donner: Global teleconnectivity structures of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and large volcanic eruptions -- An evolving network perspective. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics Discussions, doi:10.5194/npg-2017-69 (2017).

  • F. Baarsch, S. Adams, D. Coumou, R.V. Donner, W. Hare, T. Lissner, M. Pérette, M. Rocha, A. Robinson, M. Schaeffer, O. Serdeczny, A. Svirejeva-Hopkins: Climate change in South East Asia: coastal zones and productivity in the eye of the cyclone. Regional Environmental Change.

  • M. Wiedermann, J.F. Siegmund, J.F. Donges, J. Kurths, R.V. Donner: Differential imprints of distinct ENSO flavors in global extreme precipitation patterns. Climate Dynamics.